Softs Report 11/02/1804/11/2018 23:10

Jack Scoville - The PRICE Futures Group - Fri Nov 2, 9:31AM CDT


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     DJ U.S. September Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Nov 2

In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2018—- —-Aug 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 105,460,625 232,540,678 111,187,077 245,167,505
coffee, roasted 6,446,654 14,214,872 7,846,270 17,301,025
coffee, soluble
instant 3,889,158 8,575,593 3,860,518 8,512,442
-Cocoa
cocoa beans 13,654,327 30,107,791 26,371,351 58,148,829
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,161,755 4,766,670 2,492,146 5,495,182
for retail candy 15,232 33,587 0 0
cocoa butter 8,915,470 19,658,611 9,132,795 20,137,813
cocoa paste,
not defatted 2,504,554 5,522,542 1,910,447 4,212,536
cocoa paste
defatted 3,448,445 7,603,821 4,232,317 9,332,259
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,291,483 18,282,720 8,960,430 19,757,748
cocoa powder,
sweetened 34,954 77,074 60,030 132,366
confectioners
coating 3,153,379 6,953,201 3,345,641 7,377,138
candy containing
chocolate 10,066,447 22,196,516 11,305,515 24,928,661

DJ FAO Food Price Index Falls for Fifth Straight Month in October
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices slipped in October, dropping across all categories with the exception of sugar and cereals, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index was down 0.9% from its September level and at its lowest level since last May, the organization said.
Dairy prices fell 4.8%, while meat prices slipped 2% from their September price. Vegetable oils fell 1.5% on month to their lowest level since 2009, falling for the ninth straight month.
Cereal prices rebounded 1.3% on month. The sharpest month-on-month rise concerned corn, which was up 8.9% from the same month last year, mostly on U.S. forecasts. A tightening wheat outlook–with Australia’s crop prospects deteriorating–also contributed.
Sugar prices leapt 8.7% on month, rallying with the Brazilian real and weaker production prospects for India and Indonesia.

COTTON
General Comments Cotton was higher as the market ignored a dismal weekly export sales report and instead reacted to tweets by President Trump about a good conversation he had with President Xi about trade and North Korea. The market now hopes for a resolution to the trade war, or at least the easing of any additional threats of more tariffs. Trends are still mixed. The weekly crop data showed slow progress with the harvest and still poor crop conditions. Export sales for the last few weeks have been poor and show no real signs of improvement for now. Export demand needs to improve soon for prices to rally significantly this year, but any increase in demand has to come with no purchases from China for a while. China has been active in India buying and will buy as much as possible there to make up for production losses inside of China. USDA estimated production down in India and Pakistan due to bad weather during the growing season, so India might not be able to cover all of the Chinese demand. US production is reduced after Hurricane Michael ripped into Georgia and brought devastating winds and rain to growing areas and in response to the drought in West Texas seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather and cool temperatures, but big rain on Monday. The Southeast will get dry weather until the rain appears on Thursday. Temperatures should be near normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather into next week, but rain is possible next week. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 73.29 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 29,144 bales, from 24,096 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7840, 7780, and 7740 December, with resistance of 7960, 8010, and 8030 December.

DJ U.S. September Cotton Exports-Nov 2
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 18 Aug 18 Jul 18 Sep 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 6,769,938 10,403,858 13,904,186 1,504,125
1 to 1 1/8 inch 70,438,363 72,848,323 105,404,278 51,346,510
upland 1 1/8 and over 73,570,068 88,915,793 107,985,414 69,340,485
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 4,900,664 5,184,955 9,683,599 3,398,318
All cotton 155,679,033 177,352,929 236,977,477 125,589,438
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Sep 18 Aug 18 Jul 18 Sep 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 31,094 47,785 63,861 6,908
1 to 1 1/8 inch 323,521 334,590 484,118 235,833
upland 1 1/8 and over 337,905 408,387 495,973 318,478
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 22,509 23,814 44,476 15,608
All cotton 715,028 814,575 1,088,429 576,828

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher again yesterday. It was a limited volume day as the trade is looking at the end of the hurricane season and the start of the freeze season. The Oranges harvest is underway in Florida under good weather conditions. Chart trends are still mostly down. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time, or at least nothing that would impact the state. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used due to the dry weather. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and one major processor is open in the state to take packing house eliminations.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers, with the best precipitation coming Friday and over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 52 contracts were delivered against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 352 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 137.00, 136.00, and 133.00 January, with resistance at 139.00, 141.00, and 143.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. Speculators were the best buyers and the cash market seemed quiet. The weather is called good in Brazil, but everyone is keeping an eye on El Nino as it could cause crop losses in Coffee areas. It is the off-year for production, anyway, so weather related losses could make for dramatic changes in Brazil production. Vietnam is getting close to its next harvest, and prices in London had been under pressure as the market is expecting bigger cash market offers. Producers in both countries are not selling much. Some problems with too much rain have been noted in Central America. Drier conditions are wanted for harvesting, and mostly dry weather is in the forecast as the calendar turns to November. The rainy season usually stops about now. The rains could eventually impact quality and yields and could make processing and drying of the beans very difficult. The weather is called good for crops in Colombia
Overnight News: Certified stocks are sharply higher today and are about 2.444 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 110.81 ct/lb. Brazil will get daily chances for scattered showers through the weekend and drier weather next week. Temperatures should be near to mostly above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 111.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 121.00 and 123.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1620 January. Support is at 1660, 1650, and 1620 January, and resistance is at 1730, 1740, and 1750 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed mixed to lower as the US Dollar fell sharply and the Brazilian Real moved higher. An early rally attempt could not be sustained as the market has already moved a lot higher from the lows and many speculators think the rally has gone far enough. The fundamentals of the market have been changing, so the ability of prices to move much lower at this time might be limited. Ideas of big world production are bearish and have been the reason for the selling, but there are now doubts on just how much production will be seen this year in India. Northwest India had been experiencing hot and dry weather that could cut yields, and there have been some reports of pest problems eating the cane. Brazil production also appears to be less, and more of the cane is being processed into ethanol instead of sugar. Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but conditions are mostly good in Ukraine. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas.
Overnight News: Brazil will get daily chances for scattered showers through the weekend and drier weather next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1300 and 1230 March. Support is at 1310, 1300, and 1270 March, and resistance is at 1350, 1370, and 1400 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 352.00 March. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 338.00 March, and resistance is at 364.00, 367.00, and 371.00 March.

DJ Indian Sugar Lining Up For Export — Market Talk
1608 ET – About 830,000 tons of sugar has already been booked for export in India, with 5 million metric tons possible, says Marex Spectron, reporting from an All India Sugar Trade Association seminar. That would place India’s sugar exports on par with exports last seen in the 2007-2008 season, the firm says. Tonnage sold domestically is limited by quota. With a choice between exporting or keeping the sugar on-hand until next year, which is likely to be another year of surplus, mills are likely to export, the firm says, especially since the government’s current sugar program is being scrutinized by the WTO and could collapse. Over the last year, the government has announced a slew of measures aimed at propping up its cane mills and farmers. (julie.wernau@wsj.com)

COCOA
General Comments Futures closed higher again in both New York and London. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets, but futures appear to have stalled at current trading levels for the last few days. There are some disease concerns for West Africa. Black Pod Disease has been reported and other areas have been harvesting in wet weather, makin processing difficult. Initial harvest reports from Nigeria indicate reduced yields due to too much rain as the main crop was maturing. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast and Ghana are being reduced, with Ivory Coast now estimating its main crop production at 1.985 million tons, down from previous estimates just over 2.0 million tons. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.807 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2280, 2330, and 2450 December. Support is at 2230, 2170, and 2150 December, with resistance at 2300, 2340, and 2370 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1720 December. Support is at 1660, 1640, and 1610 December, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1750 December.

DJ Nigeria to Lose 7% of Cocoa in 2018-19 Season to Heavy Rains, Disease -CAN
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Nigeria is set to lose 7% of its cocoa production in the 2018-19 season due to heavy rains and the outbreak of black-pod disease, the head of the country’s national cocoa body said Tuesday.
“We are getting heavy rainfall accompanied by flash floods, very strong winds uprooting cocoa trees with losses of cocoa,” said Sayina Riman, president of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria.
He said the black pod triggered by the heavy rains in August and September and the current downpours has also adversely affected the country’s cocoa output.
“A loss of 7% of our cocoa in the current season stands as CAN said in a recent forecast,” said Mr. Riman.
Bolaji Omoshola, a trader in Ibadan, capital of southwest Oyo state said the southwest cocoa region received heavy rains Monday, adding that the cocoa loss could be higher than 7% if rainfall persists as black-pod disease continues to damage cocoa pods.
He said farmers were “very concerned” over the rainfall pattern in the 2018-19 season. “Rainfall that should be coming to an end now is intensifying and damaging cocoa,” he added.
The black-pod fungus thrive in wet and damp conditions on cocoa farms and the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria said about 40% of the country’s cocoa could be damaged per season if the disease is lefty untreated.
Mr. Omoshola said in neighboring Ogun and Osun states there isn’t enough sunshine to dry cocoa beans resulting in 14% to 18% moisture level in the cocoa.
Ideally, moisture level should be 7% or lower in a good consignment of cocoa, according to international standards.
He said heavy rainfall in the southwest cocoa washed off the fungicides applied by farmers to combat the black pod.

Nguồn: 123chienluoc.com



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